EUR hits 5-month high after the French presidential first round on Sunday


Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has headed the election, competing far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the final round.

Investors were afraid that far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon would beat Macron. If so, voters would have to choose between two Eurosceptic candidates.

EUR hit its highs since the middle of November, and CAC 40 rose by 4% in the morning session.

In London Stock Exchange, FTSE100 is up 1.5%.

Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Opimas Legal Consultants based in Paris said, “Macron will reassure markets as he undertook to cut corporate taxes and reduce administrative burden on companies. He represents the sustainability.”

Kathleen Brooks, Research Manager in “City Index” based in London, agrees with him. She indicated that the result was positive for two reasons.

She said, “First, Macron is a politically-stable centrist candidate; almost as same as Obama in USA. He is trustworthy. Second, he will help to establish the future of EU and Euro unlike Marine Le Pen who wants to destructs EU.”

Strong Reaction

With the appearance of the election results on Sunday, EUR/USD jumped up 2%, reaching $1.09395 which is a new high since 10th of November, namely one day after the US presidential election. It subsequently eased to $ 1.0850.

Against JPY to which investors resort when they see high risks, Euro is up 3% hitting its highs in five weeks before it eased to 119.50 Yen.

EUR/AUD rose by 1.2% reaching 0.8480 penny.

Analysts indicated that the rise in Euro reflected the investors’ worry. Yuki Saito, Manager of Foreign Exchange in “Crédit Agricole” based in Tokyo, said, “Initial reaction of market was stronger than the expectation. This means that a lot of people were cautious before voting.”

Shares of European banks hit their highs since December 2015.

In France, shares of “Societe Generale” are up 10% while shares of “Credit Agricole” rose by more than 8%.

In London, shares of Barclays Bank are up 5% while shares of “Royal Bank of Scotland” increased by 2.5%.

Based on our analysis, we are expecting to see some selling pressure on the EURUSD around the 1.0980 to 1.1100 area.

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A self-taught trader, Kar Yong was once featured in Channel News Asia’s Money Mind Young Investor. He was also featured as a Social Guru on the eToro social trading platform where he led the path for more than a thousand traders in confusing market conditions by sharing his trading strategies through forums and blog posts. Today, he teaches his proprietary 4 Pillar Forex Trading Strategy to students from all over the world.