ANALYSIS PRIOR TO RBNZ RATE STATEMENT
On the 25th September (Monday), we held our free weekly Alpha Play Weekly Traders Meetup, during which we shared our analysis and insights on upcoming news events to watch out for the week ahead.
Last week’s focus was on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). On top of sharing how we are preparing to trade the Reserved Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Rate Statement, we shared trading opportunities in the other major currency pairs as well.
The result was the capture of a massive 920 pip profit from the market, or a whopping $9200 profit if you were trading a lot size!
The best part was, our attendees got these information for free!
Watch the video below for a sneak peak into how we analysed the NZDUSD pair during the meetup.
Sign up for Alpha Play’s Weekly Traders Meetup.
*To protect our traders’ interest, not all pairs and details will be discussed in this post.
A shoutout to Jerry for catching +130 pips from the AUDUSD trade too!
Jerry’s Analysis Before
Jerry’s Analysis After
WAY TO GO JERRY!
AT ALPHA PLAY, IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT THE COACHES PROFITING FROM THE MARKET; BUT WE MAKE IT OUR MISSION TO ENSURE OUR STUDENTS PROFIT TOO!
KEY FOCUS THIS WEEK
For the first week of the month, we traders will always be focusing on the US Dollar (USD) simply because we have one of the most important news event on the first Friday of the month – the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP).
This economic data measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
It is one of the most important news event in the Forex market because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
If the data released on Friday is significantly better than the expected numbers, it will indicate an improvement in the economy, which usually cause the strengthening of the US Dollar. On the other hand, if the data released is significantly worse than the expected numbers, it will indicate that the economy is slowing down, which usually translate to the US Dollar to weaken.
Based on our analysis on the US Dollar Index (DXY), we see limited upside on the US Dollar, and we are expecting more downside potential trading out of this risk event.
Since the start of 2017, the US Dollar has been falling from the high at 103.84 to the recent low in September at 91.01.
The fall in US Dollar seems to have completed a larger degree 3rd wave, and is now in a 4th wave correction towards 94.05 to 95.91 area.
According to Elliott Wave Principle, a complete cycle comprises a 5-wave structure, followed by a 3-wave structure.
Thus we are still expecting one last wave down (5th wave) to complete the overall cycle on the US Dollar.
This Friday’s NFP data will provide us the more ‘clues’ as to where the US Dollar will likely be heading for the remaining of 2017.